Welcome Back, Old Friend

For as long as I can remember, I have enjoyed Hockey. I started, like every kid, watching with my dad. He was a Rangers fan, so I grew to love the boys in Blue as well. My first hockey jersey was even a hand-me-down - one of my dad's old jersey's from his beer-league days. I remember Messier's guarantee. I remember game 7 versus the Devils. Then the entire finals against Pavel Bure and the Canucks. I remember the emotion of them succeeding so many years after the last time they did.

When my little brother got older and started liking hockey too, we used to have "Guys Nights". Once or twice a season the three of us would go get a nice dinner and then head to a Binghamton Rangers game. It was great for me because, not only did I get to share the experience with them, but I got to watch all the future Rangers play. I went on to college, and my Hockey life grew there, too. Regular season games were free, and Oswego was pretty good - usually in the top 10 in the nation for D3. There were no bad seats in the house, and I can hardly remember missing a game.

When Hockey reached a labor impasse last year, it was like watching a friend go away for a while. All those games I would watch, the cheering, the excitement, the experience, they were all gone. So you can imagine how happy I am that Hockey is back.

I don't know even if it will be on TV. I'm pretty sure the Rangers will not be good. But I'm excited that I will be able to watch (even if it's only one or two games, in person), and read and hear about Hockey again. My friend is back. Welcome home.

The Psychology of a Losing Streak

No, I’m not trying to be Tom Cruise, nor can I go jump on Oprah’s couch to discuss this one. But I am going to bring up what I will call the Reverse RFK Effect.

That’s right, I named it. And for good reason, too. All year we’ve heard how RFK helps the Nats. The deep fields, the mislabeled distances, the fact that it was so different from other parks around the league set others off balance. We were used to it. They weren’t. If the fans are the 10th man on the baseball team, RFK is the quiet, unobtrusive 11th – one more tool we could use to beat other teams who were used to power hitter friendly confines.

When the Nats were winning, confident, even when they were underdogs, this played into their mentality beautifully. Now, however, mired in the worst streak of the season (3-8 since the all start break, 4-10 counting the last series before the break) I think RFK did the reverse to the Nats – in this past home stand, it hurt them.

Now, before you lambaste me like folks lambasted Tommy boy (deservedly), let me explain. Those of you who have participated in team sports, especially a team that is close knit, will have a better understanding of where I am coming from. These guys love each other. This is a team not born from talent, but born from a common desire to win and to not let one another down. When one of the guys starts to slump, the other guys want to perform better to pick him up. The more guys who start to slump, the more the other guys try to carry the team. We see this a lot in sports. The problem here is that baseball is a true team sport. To score runs, you must have guys on base – games are not one on solo home runs alone – at least, not very often.

When they start to press, though, the home run, the big hit, the double off the wall becomes the goal – not the single to get on base. This is where the Reverse RFK Effect comes into play. RFK is bar-none the hardest park in the league to hit home runs in. RFK is where long drives go to die. RFK is a singles park, or a double in the gap – that’s how the Nats won so many in the first half. But when they start to press, when Jose Guillen and Brad Wilkerson start thinking they need to crush every ball to make up for injuries and slumps, the team runs into this kind of stretch where we lost 2 of 3 from the MLB worst Rockies and got lucky in one game (Thank You, Willy Taveras) to not get swept by Houston. The swing at bad pitches. They expand the strike zone. They put so much weight on themselves to succeed that they are crushed in clutch situations. And RFK makes it worse by making those one or two pitches you might actually get a hold of into long fly ball outs, not homeruns or doubles off the wall.

The Reverse RFK Effect.

Will they come out of it? I think so. The question is, how long before they do? The Atlanta series (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) is ill-timed. I would have rather been in Miami against the Marlins for those days and then hit Hotlanta over the weekend. These are the stretches that separate the good teams from the bad, however. If the Nats can take 2 of 3 from Atlanta, they’ll be fine. If not, we may be in for a hot, sticky, sub .500 August.

From Nationals Pride

Preston Wilson?

Yes, I know Jim Bowden knows more than I do. I still have a right to question, however. At the time of this writing, Wilson was (in the hitter friendly confines of Colorado, no less) hitting .258, with a meager .322 on base percentage (OBP) and was slugging around .491. Yes, these numbers are also close to his career averages. How, then, will he transfer to the Nationals, especially in a ballpark where long balls go to die? I understand this is a team built on pitching and defense, but the rationale for adding Wilson was to add pop to the lineup, and I don’t see much… especially considering he was in the top 10 in the NL for strikeouts. We dumped Endy Chavez for being a free swinger, so why did we grab Wilson? I’m willing to wait this one out before giving a final verdict, but I gotta say, I’m skeptical of this one.

I do, however, like the Mike Stanton pickup. The Nats bullpen was getting tired, and in this signing they got a serviceable pitcher on the cheap with a good track record and he’s another lefty. In fact, Lefties were hitting around .150 against him (righties hit around .480) so we now have a left handed specialist to get out guys like Carlos Delgado and a guy who can eat an inning or two if the team gets behind.

I’m waiting for the next deal though. Bowden keeps preaching pitching, yet we have had two trades (Spivey and Wilson) were we gave up a pitcher for a hitter. Sure, we’d never have Spivey if Ryan Drese hadn’t been there, but we are getting closer to the point where we might need a more experienced starter who can go deeper into games.

If only we could clone Livan Hernandez.

Until next time, see you on the message boards. Sign the Petition!

From Nationals Pride

Who's your new Daddy?

Who’s your new Daddy?

Yes, that’s right – it’s the column that neither Pedro nor Ian wanted to see!

I want to start a movement. We beat Pedro. Jose Guillen went 3-3. Nats are the tops of the NL East. We’re Pedro’s new daddy.

Yes, I know – this is the first time Pedro pitched against the Nats as a Met. I also know that the Yanks are his real daddies. But – the Nationals are about rebirth – new season, new team, no more Expos. Their record this season proves that. Pedro is also having a rebirth, one in a Mets uniform. You know what a rebirth means… He needs a new Daddy.

Anyone in for t-shirts?

Injuries

We look to be on an upswing – Vidro back, Johnson soon to follow, and Church after that. I’m making the call today – if we can get a good, serviceable starting pitcher, the Nats have a great shot at the Division or the Wild Card. Remember – the majority of the rest of their games are at home, where they have the best record in MLB, and even if they go .500 the rest of the way it’s still a 90+ win season.

From Nationals Pride

Run Differential

I’m tired of hearing that stat. It’s killing me. You check the newspaper, you turn on the radio, you watch Baseball Tonight on ESPN, you hear about run differential. Everyone says “blah blah blah, the Nats are overrated since they have a negative run differential. There is zero chance they’ll make the playoffs, no one with a negative RD makes the playoffs.”

Wrong.

I quote Mr. Tom Boswell, from his weekly Nats e-mail, courtesy of Washington Post – “ First, what is the best result ever by a team that has ever been outscored for the season? Answer: The ' 87 Minnesota Twins were outscored by 20 runs, but won the AL West, then won the World Series. If anybody says the Nats can't possibly go to the playoffs with such a statistically unimpressive team, tell 'em Washington just might win the Series, because it's already been done.”

He also offers a list of teams that (recently) were very like the Nats.

· The '97 Giants (-9) won the N.L. West title.
· The '95 Rockies and '95 Dodgers were only +2 and +25 respectively, but Colorado was the wild card and the Dodgers won the N.L. West.
· The '90 Red Sox were just +35 but won the A.L. East.
· The '89 Orioles , another team managed by Frank Robinson, only outscored the league by 22 runs. But they went 87-75 and stayed in the pennant chase until the final weekend.
· The '87 Expos were a paltry +21 but won 91 games.
· The '85 Reds were +11 but won 89.
· The '84 Royals were -13 but won the AL West.

Yes, the Nats are a long-shot contender. No, I don’t expect them to meet up with Minnesota in the World Series (did I just say Minnesota?). But it’s time for people like Peter Gammons of ESPN, John Donovan of Sports Illustrated and even our own Boz to stop dogging them about run differential and realize that RFK is so unlike any other stadium in the league, and Run Differential may just not apply to a team that plays 81 games there, instead of crazy home-run parks like Camden and Fenway.

It’s time for them to go back to school… the old school. And Frankie Rob’s team is teaching the class.

A WORD TO THE NATS MARKETING FOLKS

I appreciate the Nats e-mails from nationals.com, but please don’t mass disperse an e-mail about renting the luxury box behind home plate. 90% of your recipients cannot afford the 3 grand to rent the place for one game. Most folks pay less than that for 2 season tickets. Target some corporate clients if you need it used. A word to the wise, though – all that does is remind the normal, everyday folks of how many things at a ballpark they cannot afford in any decent sized quantity – like $6 beers and $8 poorly made chicken fingers, let alone the over-priced replica jerseys.

From Nationals Pride

Stunned

One word says it all. No one, not even a poor pundit like myself, could have ever predicted the Nats would be on fire this much. They have won 14 of their last 16 and still retain sole possession of the NL East lead.

The more amazing part, however, is how they are doing it. They pick up Ryan Drese off waivers from Texas, who was 4-6 with a 6.46 ERA, and turn him around to pitch against an AL team that he had faced before (Texas is in the same division as Anaheim) and he throws an 8 inning 2 hit shutout. His ERA after that performance dropped almost a run. Granted, this performance may not continue, but I refer you to the fact that AL pitchers going to the NL almost always have a huge drop in ERA and perform better. For reference see Clemens, Roger and Martinez, Pedro. Also, Drese is a sinkerball pitcher, meaning he gets a lot of ground balls. The Nats are exceptional defensively, so between his propensity for ground balls and the friendly, no homer confines of RFK, he should be fine as a 5th starter.

What really gets me is the performance of Chad “chief” Cordero. He comes on last night with a 1-0 lead, promptly loads the bases – you read that correctly – with NO OUTS – you also read that correctly – and still gets out of the inning. He struck out two and gave up a pop fly that wasn’t deep enough for Darrin “linebacker” Erstad to tag up and bum rush another NL East Catcher.

Watching these games is more exhilarating than a Ridley Scott opus. Oh wait – we couldn’t watch last night. You’re right, ESPN2 broadcast the game, but it was blocked in the DC area by Comcast for Comcast subscribers using the local viewing rights exemption (despite no local broadcaster showing it) as a new ploy in their legal battle with MASN. When will they realize that the public doesn’t care who wins this battle, as long as they can see the Nats? I hear more people blaming Comcast for not showing the games than MASN.

SIDE NOTE – Carlos Baerga, don’t be mad at me for what I’m going to say. You’re a great part of the Nats and have defined “clutch” several times this season. But dude – when you run – I laugh uncontrollably. I giggle like a schoolgirl. You run like your legs are two little pistons, and it looks like you take 3 steps per foot of ground you cover. I point this out when noticeable and other people giggle too. My dad loved it, so when he watches the Nats now he always looks for it. Don’t be mad, Carlos, and keep up the good work. If you hear laughter when you run, it’s just me. Don’t worry.

From Nationals Pride

Congratulations, NBA

You have now assured yourself of the most boring NBA final EVER. Since, you know, Detroit and San Antonio are such TV hotbeds, ratings will be through the roof. That, and Ben and Rasheed Wallace are just as interesting as Shaq and Dwayne Wade.

Oh wait, no, they're not. On all counts.

Now, instead of having the backdrop of South Beach and an offensively minded final, we'll drop back to defense and have 5 or 6 82-76 games. The spurs were interesting in the Western Conference Final because they played up tempo basketball to compete with the Suns, somethign they would have done against Shaq and co. Now that they'll be playing Detroit, Poppo will revert his team to boring, defensive wonders.

That, and we all know how Tim Duncan, as good as he is, is Milquetoast compared to Shaq. No one wants to tune in to watch TD, because he has a bland personality. They want to see Shaq yell "Can You Dig It" at the top of his lungs.

So, congratulations, NBA. Going into a CBA contract year with the players, and staring in the face of an NHL-style lockout, you'll top off a good playoff year with one of the most boring finals of all time.

In the words of Leonardo Leonardo - "well played".

First Place

I know, I know, it won’t last, but it sure sounds nice, doesn’t it? The first time a DC team has been in first this late in a season since 1933. They went on to win the pennant. Now, I don’t think that will happen this year, but we’ll at least challenge down the stretch. It’s good for baseball and it’s good for DC, whose fans deserve a team that can get them all on their collective feet.

A word about Marlon Byrd. I wasn’t there Saturday night, but I was watching at home. I won’t comment on what MLB will do ( I have no basis to judge) but I will back up Frank Robinson on his statement – with the team hurting (Wilkerson hurting, Guillen hit by a pitch in the hand) the LAST thing Byrd should have done was get himself ejected and then probably suspended for multiple games.

Finally, A word on stadium chants – Most of them I get, and we all seem to have fun with. I question, however, the “Day-o” chant. What purpose does it serve? Where does it come from? We go to the games, we all cheer “day-o” and none of us knows why. Can someone explain this? Best answer on the message board might win a prize.

From Nationals Pride

Poll

I have this new theory.

It's that no one reads these things anymore, and therefore no one posts anymore - if you think I haven't written in a long time, you should check out some friends' blogs.

So for that reason only, I ask of you - post a message, send an email, let me know if you actually read this or not - I don't want to be posting random thoughts for no one to look at.

thanks!

Nats Ownership News?

Straight from Jayson Stark’s “rumblings and grumblings” on ESPN.com, here’s some Nats Ownership news. I’d link to it, but you gotta be an Insider, kids.

“Major League Baseball will finally get moving next week on finding the Nationals an owner. MLB has set the end of May as the deadline for the nine known bidders to submit their bids.

So how did baseball get around the continuing uncertainty about the future of the new regional sports network which will theoretically air both Orioles and Nationals games?

Groups were instructed to make one bid with the assumption that the network will get off the ground as scheduled – and one based on the possibility it won't exist at all.”

Hopefully this news might get the team to hit again. Probably not. On this I defer to Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post – “ Right now, if you rolled a bowling ball through the on-deck circle, Brad Wilkerson would run over and swing at it. And, if there were men on base, he'd probably miss.”

From Nationals Pride

Trade Central

Well, the trade for a centerfielder discussed in my last column has finally occurred. Not whom we suspected it would be, however – Endy Chavez to the Phils for Marlon Byrd. Though I was surprised, I like this trade for several reasons:

We keep the speed Chavez had.

We get a potentially better bat – someone with the ability to muscle a few if needed.

An experienced, true centerfielder.

This gives the Nats the ability to play Wilkerson in left, his true position, and have a speedy CF to track down balls alongside him. With the loss of Termel Sledge to a hammy injury, this will allow Ryan Church to back up at any side of the field and let Perennial Prospect Jeffrey Hammonds go elsewhere. Also, if Byrd can get used to waiting in pitches and working the count (something Chavez seemed allergic too) he could lead off, allowing Wilkerson to move back and be the RBI machine he can be deeper in a lineup.

Below follows a scouting report from our friends at ESPN.

“Although the Phillies projected Byrd as a potential power hitter, his bat seems to have slowed since his breakthrough season at Double-A in 2001. While fast enough to beat out slow rollers and strong enough to muscle the ball over the infield when jammed, he doesn't work pitchers well and doesn't make the kind of consistent, solid contact that is needed to play regularly. Byrd can track down flyballs over his head or into the gaps. But he has lost his aggressiveness on the bases, attempting only four steals last season despite good speed. He has an average arm.”

From Nationals Pride

Truth and Rumors... Back Again

Last time it was about the GM, this time it’s about… Centerfield. The new Nats rumor swirling around has them trading for Preston Wilson. Granted, the rumors don’t have any consensus on who the Nats would be giving up, but the usual suspects are named – Tomo Okha and Zach Day.
My take? Iffy. I know that Wilkerson is not a natural centerfielder and that we need a true center man but I don’t think that, if we are going to give up one of our two best trade baits it should be for a guy hitting .240 so far in the hitting confines of Coors Field. .240 there is like .210 here, and that’s just not acceptable. Plus, aside from Ryan Church being a true centerfielder and developing well for a younger guy, the Nats would have to have the Rocks pay all of the 12 million owed to Wilson for this season… something I doubt they’d be willing to do.

If I was Jim Bowden, I’d hang on to Okha, Day and Endy Chavez for a bit longer and deal them for a better hitting centerfielder who might come on the market. June and July will be more fertile trading time, and there are bad teams who need pitching that would get us a better CF than Wilson – even Kansas City’s David Dejesus is younger than Wilson with better stats… and lord knows the Royals need the help right now.

And before you go jumping all over me on the Nats budget – Bud Selig said today that they plan to have the team sold buy mid-summer, but even if they didn’t, the Nats would have the flexibility to add payroll if they were in the race by mid-summer. They stay close now and they’ll be fine in July.

From Nationals Pride

Beat the Mets, Beat the Mets

Yes, I know, with the Nats taking 2 of 3 from the Mets at home I should be discussing the team. With Eischen out 12 weeks with a broken arm, I should be discussing the team.

Am I going to discuss the team? Later. Right now I am going to discuss tarp. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, those of you in attendance Saturday night (I mean you, BKKE – I saw you leading the cheers) saw one of the funniest uses of tarp in a stadium… EVER. Going out for the 2nd rain delay (after which, they called the game) the grounds crew made a poor fold of the tarp… that lead to 45 minutes of wet and wild hi-jinx that made RFK look like a giant Slip n’ Slide. The poor guys had to enlist the help of food vendors, parking attendant, and the janitorial crew to get the tarp unfurled and placed over the field. A few fans even tried to help, which led to them being escorted off the field to the chants of “let them go, let them go”. I had almost as much fun watching the “National Tarp Pull” (as stated by the scoreboard) as I did the rest of the game.

OK, on to the team. 2 of 3 from the Mets is good. Losing Eischen is bad. That makes, for my count, 3 of the bullpen down (add in Horgan and Tucker). Eischen is easily the wizened old man of the pen, and losing his experience and steady left arm is hard. Plus, there is now no left hander in the ‘pen, let alone a proven one. Look for the Nats to be scouring the MLB unemployed for the lefty, as I don’t think they have one in AAA that’s ready for the NL east’s batters.

Downside? We may slip a few games farther back of the fish. Upside? Eischen was leading MLB relievers in innings pitched, so the rest will get him fresh for the August/September push. Let’s hope we’ll be able to make it to August and still be close.

Workers of the world unite

No, I'm not a marxist.

I do, however, believe that there will be a small rebellion in the service based economy we have in the US right now. Bear with me as I explain:

The 40 hour work week, once mandated by law, has long since passed us by. With the emergence of the service economy, workers are being asked to work more and more for less and less benefits - and by benefits I mean not only quality health care and retirement plans, but raises and salaries as well.

Add on top of this the work cell phones, the blackberries, accessing your work e-mail from home, laptops... It's hard to break the leash, and many find themselves working at home instead of spending time with their family or, god forbid, having some time to themselves.

I'm pretty confident that someday, down the road, there will be a backlash. For now, though, I offer a solution... Optional Fridays. before I get killed for this, let me explain.

Most Fridays are already casual. Let's now encourage the work from home aspect for those days, so it can be truly casual. Sure, many people will take advantage of this to start, but after a few months of it, you'll see people filter in throughout the day to get stuff doen and then go home... with no problems from their superiors. I honeslty bet productivity would increase because people would have less incentive to sit at their desk and do nothing. Get that project finished? Have a three day weekend.

Sounds good to me.

Welcome to the Dark Side

The Boston Red Sox and their fans have just officially come over to the dark side. Life as an empire begins today.

With Tough out for injured Garciaparra by Bob Ryan in today's Boston Globe the Sawx have joined the ranks of the Evil Empire they so depised. One of the most celebrated Sawx columnists takes and unsubstantiated shot at a former pillar of the team, and in doing so shows the true colors of Sawx Fans everywhere.

I cannot wait to hear all the Sox "fans" use this as justification for dumping their favorite star for replacement talent when he could have been just as clutch, if not more so, that Cabrera down the stretch last year.

On behalf of the Yanks, welcome to the club. The anything for a ring club. Watch as all of baseball now depises you, too.

Nationals Pride

OK, I know, I had a post with this title before.

The reason I bring this up again is that the site is done! Yes, ladies and gents, you can go to Nationals Pride and check out content all about your Washington Nationals. I know, most of you are fans of other teams, but do me the favor - go to the site, click some links, read some content, post in the message board. Tell me how bad my picture looks, even. It's updated every day, and I'll be adding my baseball blog thoughts there, not here, so look for this to make a more political turn... well, maybe not, but at least it would be less Baseball.

So what are you waiting for? Click it! Nationals Pride.com

Time change

I just want to go on the record, again, about being anti-the time change. I mean, we all love more sunlight, of course, but this change screws me up for a few days.

That is, screws me up more than I already am.

Delay's Debatable Decision

Yes, I Adore Alliteration Ad Nauseum.

Anyways, Tom Delay is at it again. As evidenced by Sunday's LA Times article, Delay, in similar circumstances, pulled the plug on his own Dad, where when it comes to the Schiavo case, Tommy is ready and willing to jump in and get the US Congress involved to reinsert the feeding tube.

I understand wanting to make a stand for what you believe in. Heck, I even have a small bit of admiration for those who are crusading for what they think is right, despite me not being exactly in line with their beliefs. But come on, Tom Delay - don't jump on this issue just because it will help you politically when you let your own dad die in an extremely similar case.

Hypocrisy. Tell Tom to find a dictionary.

Assorted Sheet

March Madness - I know, I know - someone kill me for complaining about 'Cuse. Great games this weekend though - comebacks galore. This coming weekend... look for UNC and Illinois to win close ones... setting up a nice championship game matchup.

Baseball - I am getting very excited, aren't you? Seeing many, many pieces of Nats paraphenalia too. April 3, ESPN, 8PM - Sawx/Yanks to get us started, live from the Bronx.

Halo 2 - New Multiplayer maps announced! Will be great to add new stuff to an already legendary game. That leads me too...

I broke down and got Xbox Live last week. I love it. I was missing a sense of community in my gaming, missing the trash talking that went down on HT9 and the post-game post-mortems. Xbox Live gives you that feeling, between the headset functionality and the ability to add others onto your 'box to play in the same room as you. Team Sweet Lips is in the House. In the words of D Pain - You are going down like a sweet muffin!

Yes, I know I should be ranting about something, but frankly, besides Michael Jackson (something I tune out) and the constant Schiavo coverage (can we remove that feeding tube from the cable news networks, please?) there isn't much for me to discuss. Political updates to follow as they become available, but it's a slow time in DC right now.

Desperate GOP

Yeah, I wanted to do a Desperate Housewives riff, but I'm just not that funny.

Seriously though, is it me, or is the NYS GOP desperate to land a punch? From today's Hotline:

This One Could Get Ugly, Folks

HRC wants GOP votes "canceled out by a murder or rapist" while the GOP is intent of promoting a "radical political agenda," according to "dueling fundraising letters" sent out by HRC and her critics. HRC: "You have to fight back, and you can't site back and let baseless attacks go unanswered." State GOP chair Stephen Minarik (R): "Our favorite carpetbagger is up for re-election in 2006 and hungrily eyeing a run for the White House in 2008. If we soundly defeat her in 2006, her hopes of running for president will whither on the vine." The letters highlight the emerging battle over HRC's bid for a second Senate term. More HRC: "If there is one thing that I have learned in my years of politics, it's that you can't let the opposition set the terms of the debate." More Minarik: "Hillary's vision of a better American is one where your vote is canceled out by a murderer or a rapist. If your thought of Hilary Clinton as our commander-in-chief strikes fear into your heart, you are not alone. There are millions of Republicans and even a few common-sense Democrats here in New York whose biggest fear is another President Clinton" (Humbert, Newsday, 3/15).

Now, sure, the NYS GOP needs help. Pataki is way down, Guiliani won't run, Bloomberg isn't truly Republican - he's very moderate and was a registered Dem for a long time. Isn't it a little early, however, to accuse a sitting Senator of trying to cancel out opposition votes with a "murderer or rapist"?

Stunts like this are why (1) poeple tune out politics more and more and (2) HRC does well upstate - going below the belt on the first punch is a big turn-off for NY voters.