Run Differential

I’m tired of hearing that stat. It’s killing me. You check the newspaper, you turn on the radio, you watch Baseball Tonight on ESPN, you hear about run differential. Everyone says “blah blah blah, the Nats are overrated since they have a negative run differential. There is zero chance they’ll make the playoffs, no one with a negative RD makes the playoffs.”

Wrong.

I quote Mr. Tom Boswell, from his weekly Nats e-mail, courtesy of Washington Post – “ First, what is the best result ever by a team that has ever been outscored for the season? Answer: The ' 87 Minnesota Twins were outscored by 20 runs, but won the AL West, then won the World Series. If anybody says the Nats can't possibly go to the playoffs with such a statistically unimpressive team, tell 'em Washington just might win the Series, because it's already been done.”

He also offers a list of teams that (recently) were very like the Nats.

· The '97 Giants (-9) won the N.L. West title.
· The '95 Rockies and '95 Dodgers were only +2 and +25 respectively, but Colorado was the wild card and the Dodgers won the N.L. West.
· The '90 Red Sox were just +35 but won the A.L. East.
· The '89 Orioles , another team managed by Frank Robinson, only outscored the league by 22 runs. But they went 87-75 and stayed in the pennant chase until the final weekend.
· The '87 Expos were a paltry +21 but won 91 games.
· The '85 Reds were +11 but won 89.
· The '84 Royals were -13 but won the AL West.

Yes, the Nats are a long-shot contender. No, I don’t expect them to meet up with Minnesota in the World Series (did I just say Minnesota?). But it’s time for people like Peter Gammons of ESPN, John Donovan of Sports Illustrated and even our own Boz to stop dogging them about run differential and realize that RFK is so unlike any other stadium in the league, and Run Differential may just not apply to a team that plays 81 games there, instead of crazy home-run parks like Camden and Fenway.

It’s time for them to go back to school… the old school. And Frankie Rob’s team is teaching the class.

A WORD TO THE NATS MARKETING FOLKS

I appreciate the Nats e-mails from nationals.com, but please don’t mass disperse an e-mail about renting the luxury box behind home plate. 90% of your recipients cannot afford the 3 grand to rent the place for one game. Most folks pay less than that for 2 season tickets. Target some corporate clients if you need it used. A word to the wise, though – all that does is remind the normal, everyday folks of how many things at a ballpark they cannot afford in any decent sized quantity – like $6 beers and $8 poorly made chicken fingers, let alone the over-priced replica jerseys.

From Nationals Pride