No, I’m not trying to be Tom Cruise, nor can I go jump on Oprah’s couch to discuss this one. But I am going to bring up what I will call the Reverse RFK Effect.
That’s right, I named it. And for good reason, too. All year we’ve heard how RFK helps the Nats. The deep fields, the mislabeled distances, the fact that it was so different from other parks around the league set others off balance. We were used to it. They weren’t. If the fans are the 10th man on the baseball team, RFK is the quiet, unobtrusive 11th – one more tool we could use to beat other teams who were used to power hitter friendly confines.
When the Nats were winning, confident, even when they were underdogs, this played into their mentality beautifully. Now, however, mired in the worst streak of the season (3-8 since the all start break, 4-10 counting the last series before the break) I think RFK did the reverse to the Nats – in this past home stand, it hurt them.
Now, before you lambaste me like folks lambasted Tommy boy (deservedly), let me explain. Those of you who have participated in team sports, especially a team that is close knit, will have a better understanding of where I am coming from. These guys love each other. This is a team not born from talent, but born from a common desire to win and to not let one another down. When one of the guys starts to slump, the other guys want to perform better to pick him up. The more guys who start to slump, the more the other guys try to carry the team. We see this a lot in sports. The problem here is that baseball is a true team sport. To score runs, you must have guys on base – games are not one on solo home runs alone – at least, not very often.
When they start to press, though, the home run, the big hit, the double off the wall becomes the goal – not the single to get on base. This is where the Reverse RFK Effect comes into play. RFK is bar-none the hardest park in the league to hit home runs in. RFK is where long drives go to die. RFK is a singles park, or a double in the gap – that’s how the Nats won so many in the first half. But when they start to press, when Jose Guillen and Brad Wilkerson start thinking they need to crush every ball to make up for injuries and slumps, the team runs into this kind of stretch where we lost 2 of 3 from the MLB worst Rockies and got lucky in one game (Thank You, Willy Taveras) to not get swept by Houston. The swing at bad pitches. They expand the strike zone. They put so much weight on themselves to succeed that they are crushed in clutch situations. And RFK makes it worse by making those one or two pitches you might actually get a hold of into long fly ball outs, not homeruns or doubles off the wall.
The Reverse RFK Effect.
Will they come out of it? I think so. The question is, how long before they do? The Atlanta series (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) is ill-timed. I would have rather been in Miami against the Marlins for those days and then hit Hotlanta over the weekend. These are the stretches that separate the good teams from the bad, however. If the Nats can take 2 of 3 from Atlanta, they’ll be fine. If not, we may be in for a hot, sticky, sub .500 August.
From Nationals Pride
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