Merry Christmas

As I am posting rather late, I hope it was a good one for all of you, and I hope my Jewish readers had a happy Chanakuh (i can never spell it right). For me, this has been a holiday season to look back at not only the past year, but the past few years, so to those who have helped me along the way, I thank you, and for those i have hurt, I ask for your forgiveness.

Happy Holidays and hopefully a great and perhaps eventful New Year!

Back Again

Yeah, I know more of you want me to post more often, and I'd love to, but we don't have a lot going on right now - The Yankees big trade hasn't happened yet, The Giants still haven't won since, like October, There is no hockey, and nothing terribly interesting going on in politics. As for the "lighter side of life" - I saw snow last night. Good times.

I think this will be my last post leading up to the Holiday, so Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

A date that shall live in infamy...

I normally don't do this, but being a bit of a WWII buff... take a step back today, as you would on September 11th, and be thankful for the sacrifices of the many who got us through WWII, because without them, certainly none of us would be here.

Other news to catch up on since last week...

Giambi took steroids, so did Barry Bonds. I'm not surprised - I didn't even flinch. they went from my size to gargantuan in just a few years - nothing normal. Void his contract, pay him off, I don't care - Giambi's presence on the field, like that of Barry Bonds, detracts from the game of baseball - if I can't get them out entirely, then at least get Giambi off my team.

Yankee notes - good move, dumping Heredia on the Mets for Stanton (a proven Yank) and dumping the useless Kenny Lofton for relief pitching - I know Lofton still has moves, but the man just had no place on our team - good luck, Philly.

Giants notes - CATCH THE DAMN BALL! Yes, I mean you, Amani Toomer, and you, Ike Hilliard, and yes, even you, Jeremy Shockey. The Kid (Eli) is just a rookie - you think he's going to gain any confidence if you keep dropping the damn ball? Play like a team, once in your life, please.

Politics - Good for you, Eliot Spitzer - You've got my vote - now go convince the rest of NY that you can turn your focus to Albany instead of Wall St. I can help you, if you want. Call me.

Also, Kudos to Harry Reid, the new Dem Senate leader - fillibuster whatever you have to until we get intel reform - you ARE on the right side of this one.

Congrats, reader Jen L - not everyone gets a quote in an AP article - I'd link it, but I closed the window by accident... add it in as a comment if you'd like.

Not much else to discuss - am teaching myself Dreamweaver - wish me luck!

Random Wednesday Thoughts

Tom Ridge steps down - does he run for office in the future? Is he the nominee to succeed Bush in 2008? Could he make PA red? Who takes over at DHS? I like Asa Hutchinson (Having met him), but don't rule out good ole George Elmer Pataki.

Which brings me to my next topic - NY... The center of the 2006 political universe? scoff if you must, but I think it's likely, with both a big name Gov. and Senate race. If Pataki goes to DC, who runs for his spot? Name an influential NYS republican - I bet you their name is on the list.

Baseball - Steinbrenner - DON'T DO IT. A 28 yr old Javier Vazquez is better than a 39 yr old Randy Johnson. Always. Get rid of Kevin Brown, keep the young guys - we need them. Not many Young guys left.

I'd Kill for some snow. I'm just in the mood.

That's all for today. Back with more another day.

It's been two weeks...

But I was on a mini-vacation, plus thanksgiving, so sue me.

and plus, I gotta be honest, there isn't much interesting of note - I stopped watching cable news, because I couldn't stand any more of the Peterson trial.

Had some very interesting post-election discussions with friends - insights on how, even though the republicans I know were glad they won, many were sad that it had to be an issue like gay marriage that did it. They recognize that dividing Americans based on hate of a group is a bad thing - too bad much of the country isn't smart enough to see it as well.

And, just because Joe asked for it, check it out - http://www.spitzer2006.com/ - It's an interesting site - not quite a campaign yet, but getting there. Anyways, sign up, be a friend of Eliot, check out the page often, and tell then Joe sent you. He deserves the points more than I.

Ok, I'm out - hopefully something to write about tomorrow in the news...

Monday, monday

Ahhhhh..... do you hear it? It's the sound of no Politics. It's great, honestly... I needed a break. Sorry for not providing daily reading material for you all, though.

Anyways, I have lots of thoughts running around my brain, but none of them coherent enough to write about (yet). So, therefore, I will leave you with some thoughts about this map:http://thechrisproject.com/images/map_nowvsthen.jpg

It's scary. One of my friends warned me of this, and I disregarded it... until today.

On a lighter note: The North kicked the South's ass... but it could be a lot different today.

Let the baseball free agent signings begin! The evil empire rises from the ashes...

NYS Politics

After some time off to play Halo 2 - beating my roommate handily, by the way - I'm back with more political news.

The big races of the next cycle all put the focus on the greatest state in the USA - New York, baby! Between the governor's race and Senate race of '06, we also have the hotly contested NYC mayor's race of '05.

Bloomberg's approval rating is back up to 49% after being as low as 30% several months ago. It's gonna be interesting to see if he makes inroads with the Latino community.

Governor '06 - I've been saying this for some time - Chuck Schumer is going to run, and win. Eliot Spitzer? Chuck gets to appoint his senate successor if he wins - so guess what deal is going to be made. Spitzer would make a good senator.

And finally the biggie - Senate '06 - Welcome back to Hillary-land. Or Hill-a-palooza, according to the NY Post. Many other names have been tossed out, but I think Pataki makes a run at her - the only way he could get close to a 2008 Republican nomination for President. No offense to Pataki friends out there, but he's been propped up by shitty candidates opposing him in his re-election races. Hillary's machine will wipe the floor with him.

You heard it here first. For the gamers who read this, I'll post some sort of Halo 2 story in the next few days.

Oh, Shut Up!

Not you. Keep reading.

I gotta say, though, I am quite tired of listening to Democrats whine about losing. You know what? People lose. Teams lose. The good guy, despite the movies, doesn't always win. Baseball teams play 162 games a season, and the good ones only win around 100. That's a 61% victory rate.

You know what these teams do? They go to bed, they get up the next day, and they go back to work. That's what Democrats need to do. Stop whining about losing, go sit in a room, and come up with a plan. It doesn't have to be perfect, or pretty - just has to be something. We lost, but it's neither the end of the world or a tragedy. People voted, and when people vote, shit happens. People in DC need to learn that we aren't gods - we can try and convince people to vote one way, but we cannot win or lose a race based on our skills.

OK, end Rant. Halo 2 will be in my hands in less than 12 hours now. Read the review at www.teamxbox.com - watch the videos, look at the maps, and prepare to be taken down... By me.

I'm back!

Blogger was down yesterday and this morning, so you get a random post now.

See the movie "The Incredibles". Looks awesome, has the new Star Wars Teaser Trailer.

Saw the death of a smart, funny TV show last night - Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn (of SNL fame). The show provided a place for witty, intelligent comics to discuss social/political issues in an open forum. Very funny, very smart... Therefore it was cancelled. At least the final show was good.

Halo 2 will be mine on Monday at Midnight - look for a review here around 3pm on Sunday - www.teamxbox.com

Finally, a big thanks to all of you who have posted responses - good to know I have a few readers and am not typing this just for shits and giggles...

This sucks

And, no, the following rant will not be a partisan one, and will equally refer to both Kerry and Bush in unflattering terms.

The reason why this country is so divided and contentious is that, absent a compelling candidate on EITHER side, we have to resort to the lesser of two evils, mainly along the lines of how we were raised politically. If your were R's you likely voted for Bush - if your parents were D's, you likely voted for Kerry. Since neither was an interesting candidate, we get the electoral mess we have now.

The fault for this lies with the MEDIA. Since we have gone to a 24 hour news cycle, the media struggles for something to report on. Therefore they cover whatever minutiae they can, including ancient things from a candidates personal life. This leads to two types of candidates - the Bland and the Lying.

Kerry is bland - never did anything wrong, so they had to cover made up stories, like the swift boats. Bush is more the liar type, where he successfully got people to focus on terrorism rather than what he himself had done in life and on the domestic front.

Occasionally we get lucky, and get a liar who is a good candidate, like Clinton, but that's been rare. Gore and Dole were both bland bastards.

What we need is a straight talker type, who avoids bullshit, apologizes for mistakes, and ISN'T PERFECT. McCain and Dean (minus the scream) are good examples of the types we need to run - people who would actually present a compelling case for what should happen.

Anyways, as you can tell, I am sleep-deprived and pissed off. I'll have more for you later - though I may try and avoid anything resembling the news at all costs for the next week or so.

Deadlock

Here we go again. I am calling it a night at 3 am. Hopefully this will be resolved by the morning.

Didn't I say, like a week ago, that it would come down to Ohio?

Told you :p

Voting

I'll do electoral updates later on tonight - I'll be plastered in front of the TV with a computer nearby, but thought this story was interesting...

Went to Starbucks to get something to drink for lunch and was asked if I had voted yet. The guy who asked me might have been 22, if that. Good signs that poeple are, for the first time in a while, truly invested in this election.

By the way, for those of you wondering who I voted for - I voted Tom Kanick for Town of Chenango Highway Superintendent.

Prediction

Well, Ladies and Gents - here is where I lay it all on the line. I filled out my election game today, state by state, and here is how it went...

Kerry won with 293, Bush lost with 245. Kerry won by virtue of taking Ohio and PA, despite losing Florida.

Does this happen tomorrow? Stay tuned, but the over/under on a victory time is around 1am.

Polls, Polls, Everywhere

Everywhere you look, a new poll.

I'm tired of polls. They are no longer quite as accurate as before. Here's why -

Polsters admit it takes them 10 phone calls to get 1 respondent. No one wants to take that much time on the phone.

Most poeple 18-30 have cell phones, not landlines at home, and therefore are not reachable, due to federal law prohibiting pollsters calling cell phones.

So, despite all the math, the heavy statistics, and the charts (I've done them all in grad school), most of our polls oversample the elderly, the lonely, and the bored.

Watch out for tomorrow's election to not be quite as close as they say it will - that's all I am saying.

Missing Explosives

Though I am trying to keep this as non-partisan as possible, I have to comment somewhat on this missing explosives story. I am watching the special pentagon briefing right now, and I need to point one thing out:

They are consistently referring to the missing RDX as "munitions" or "ammunition" and lumping the amount missing in with the other destroyed munitions across Iraq to illuminate this as a small amount. The problem with this is that RDX is not easily comparable to bullets or caches of bombs. RDX is a highly explosive material used not only in the common plastic explosive C-4, but is also the explosive material used to jumpstart nuclear bombs and missiles.

Lumping in this substance with more common military items is not just illogical, but highly misleading to the American public, because finding any amount of this substance would be a terrorists dream, as they could use it effectively in almost any terrorist attack.

The fact that this cache was allowed to be left semi-unguarded after it's initial capture by US forces is a major mistake, no matter who was in charge, because the loss of this substance leaves any American, no matter what party or location, at more risk than before.

Edited - 11/1/04 - I said RDX, when it is, in fact, HMX, which is "the highest-energy solid explosive produced on a large scale in the United States" - something that, though I was wrong on the type of explosive, proves my point even more.

Using your ad money well

This one goes in the "Call me Crazy" file - Congressman Jim Moran (D-VA) of Arlington County is advertising on NYTimes.com - The NY times being a newspaper in NY... not VA. I mean, I know internet ads are relatively cheap when compared to TV, but how many undecided Arlington County, VA voters either go to or pay enough attention to NYTimes.com?

If I'm wrong, tell me, but this sounds like Moran could use some help figuring out where to place his ads.

The Winter of my Discontent

First off, congratulations Red Sox Nation - it's about freaking time.

Anyways, on to my discontent, which is even more legitimate now that the Sawx have won. The Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2000, which isn't a big deal, but since they gave up the biggest comeback in the history of Baseball... I am discontent. In honor of this, I now offer up the ways the Yankees can be back next year.

First - sign Carlos Beltran. He's the real deal, and tied a post-season record for homers when he only played in 2 series. Plus, he has AWESOME defense - I see no better potential CF than Carlos. What about Bernie, you ask? He can platoon in RF with Sheffield, each alternating the field and DH, which will prolong each of their usefulness.

Second - get young pitching. Best options? Eric Milton (former Yankee farmhand) and Carl Pavano (whom I am not totally sold on). Coupled with Vazquez, Mussina and Lieber, this could be a good, younger staff. Trading for one of the Oakland big three is also and option (either Hudson or Zito) as is signing Pedro Martinez. One thing is certain - Kevin Brown should never be allowed to pitch in a Yankee uniform again - I don't care if we have to pay a team to take him, he should be gone.

Third - loose ends. Re-sign Miguel Cairo - he plays solid D and can occasionally spark you with his bat - we cannot sacrifice defense all over the field for more bats. Re-sign Olerud for a year - his leadership skills in the clubhouse cannot be underestimated. Trade Brown, Lofton, and whomever else we need to get a good lefty arm in the bullpen. Don't trade Brad Halsey - we need a lefty starter in the future, and Mussina will not last forever. See if you can move Giambi as well, he never meshed as a Yankee.

So, with all that said, here's my lineup/batting order, opening day 2005:

CF Beltran
SS Jeter
3B A-Rod
RF/DH Sheff
LF Matsui
RF/DH Bernie
C Posada
1B Olerud (or Travis Lee, who missed 2004 with a shoulder injury)
2B Cairo

Pitching staff:

Mussina
Lieber
Vazquez
Pavano
Milton
(Halsey AAA)

El Duque and Sturtze for long relief, plus the rest of the bullpen, and find somewhere to stick Heredia so he cannot screw it up anymore.

That's it for baseball... I'll cover politics later on today.

Good Website, then we focus on the Senate

First off, if you need a laugh, go to http://www.borowitzreport.com/ - Andy is a satirist who often appears on CNN and is reliable for a good laugh every morning.

Ok, now on to the Senate. As we enter this election, the senate stands at 48 dems, 51 repubs, and 1 indy (Jeffords, who caucuses with the dems). Though most of the one third of the senate is safe, their are several interesting races that could determine how things shake out.

In Alaska, because of a case of nepotism, former governor Knowles is beating the 2nd year incumbent Lisa Murkowski - a possible pickup for the dems. Also, in Colorado, with a retirement, we have an open seat race with Salazar up over beer mogul Pete Coors - another dem pickup.

But wait - due to 2 retirements in the south, dems are likely to lose Georgia (Isakson up) and South Carolina (DeMint up). Now we're back to all square.

Until we get to Illinois, where yet another retirement has opened up a spot for newly minted dem rockstar Barack Obama, who is beating Alan Keyes by quite a hefty margin.

Where does that leave us, you ask? Tied. I hear you groaning already, so wait, there's more.

We still have tossups in Florida (D), Kentucky (R), Louisiana (D, with a likely runoff - LA is a weird state), and South Dakota (D). Louisiana looks to stay dem once this goes to a runoff, so the whole bag of nuts comes down to the race that, had Senate traditions continued, never would've happened - dem senate leader Daschle versus former Congressman Thune.

In a state where they can pinpoint the exact location of every registered voter and keep track of their views, the polls in South Dakota are very accurate. They have Daschle up 2 points, despite Thune barely losing to Tim Johnson 2 years ago.

The last thing we need as a country, but the most likely scenario to happen right now, is a recount in SD to determine the Senate and recounts elsewhere to determine the presidency.

And you thought Florida in 2000 was bad.

Do the candidate's statements really matter?

Citing my source, the ideas that follow are based off of skimming this article, from today's NY Times - http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/26/politics/campaign/26BUMI.html?oref=login

The article, which is very good, cites the fact that you cannot expect that the candidates can keep with their pledges, as a President's agenda is often dictated to him by outside forces. Based on that - what do we use to judge who to vote for?

Obviously, party ID is huge - a large plurality of voters vote for a party because their parents did, or their faith base told them too, or their spouse has a strong preference in the matter. But their is also a large plurality of voters who base the decision on the candidate, not the party. So what do these people decide upon, if not the plan that each candidate outlines?

Here is my theory - when a candidate starts talking, people zone out after a few minutes and then perk up at the end. They don't really hear the nuance of the position - hence the success of the Bush campaign in 2000 and 2004 keeping messages simple and succinct. But even then, if the message is irrelevant, based on the premise that outside influences determine the course of a presidency, what now? The answer - non-verbals. How a candidate looks, reacts, speaks, how a candidate feels to the voter. It's a scary thought, but people react much more, in my mind, to the perception of the candidate - Bush as the Cowboy, Kerry as the War veteran - than to anything that comes out of their mouth.

Feel free to argue. I'm probably wrong. It's an interesting topic nonetheless.

Halo 2

Ladies and Gentlemen - the countdown is at 14 days! Then the greatest first person shooter in the history of the Xbox will be released and I will spend all day on November 11th shooting it up with my friends.

You can check it out at http://www.xbox.com/en-us/halo2/ or http://xbox.ign.com/objects/482/482228.html

See - I told you all that this would be about more than just Politics!

Two Points

...because it's a slow day thus far.

Check out the folks at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ - they do a great analysis of the plethora of polls out there, combine them, and set them up for your consumption in an easy to use format. By the way, it all comes down to, as of today (anything can change tomorrow) Ohio and Wisconsin.

An interesting phenomenon to check out - http://www.wolfpacksfortruth.org/ - have the 527 groups finally pushed their luck too far, and created spoof sites as a by-product of trying to get around campaign finance law? Or is this a real organization, like the "I thought they were fake but they aren't" http://www.footballfansfortruth.us/

Politics and IM

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, some smart individual made the next giant leap into political advertising on the internet - I saw my first political ad on my AOL IM this morning - a window that stated "How John Edwards can be bad for your health." This linked to a site that's against trial lawyers. Now, since I don't have any particular issues with trial lawyers, nor do I think they are akin to the anti-Christ, I'm not providing you with the site - you're smart enough to find it yourself.

The interesting point in all this is the new steps individual groups are taking to get their message out beyond the traditional television media. Though website ads are a great idea and certainly can raise the profile of your business/campaign/non-profit, many people have learned to ignore these flashing boxes, just as people ignore TV or Radio ads. By reaching for us in new environments, like placing political ads on an instant messaging program, you can reach a new audience that may generally ignore your ads in other mediums, and for a lot cheaper as well.

Finally, the 3rd portion of interest - the fact that IM is an application fundamentally used by either those 30 and under who, to an extent, grew up with this or people at work, who are still under retirement age. Will this depth of advertising have an effect on those disaffected by politics - the 18-30 year olds? That, I cannot answer right now. We'll have to wait a week and check on turnout.

Also - anyone know if AOL's ad-buying policy is a wide-spectrum buy of all IM windows or do they let you segment your buy based on user statistics - i.e., could an interest group purchase ad space on the IM windows of only those who were of voting age, as opposed to purchasing ad space for all IM windows? If you know, please reply to this post - might come in handy to know this in the future.

I'll be back later with more random thoughts, including wolves, and whether or not we should actually base our vote on what a candidate says on the trail.

Welcome

Welcome to my new project - the Blog! Most of this is a test run, but one can hope that eventually someone will read my slightly insane ramblings and be spurred on to a thought they might not have had. I'll try and keep this as news oriented as possible, though it's entirely likely that I'll digress towards random happenings in my life.

I'll be back later, and those of you I tell about this can read my initial post then!